Research · ORI-C
ORI-C research: evidence, limits and current status.
CumulativeSymbolicThreshold · repository-synced status
Important. The previous page was too assertive: it presented complete closure, dual proof and canonical real-data validation. The current repository corrects that reading: decisive controls are implemented, but the main real-data results remain unconfirmed.
Global statusExploratory / indicative
Built, auditable and falsifiable, but not solidly confirmed.
Full evidenceSynthetic only
The endogenous bistable demonstration has the p + 99% CI + SESOI + power triplet.
Real dataNot confirmed
FRED and Pantheon SN fail the joint confirmatory verdict.
Source of truth
The governing file is docs/EVIDENTIARY_STATUS.md. It overrides older wording, badges, historical reports and page titles.
Current reading of the results
| Block | Status | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Endogenous bistable demonstration | synthetic full statistical | Detected effect with p-value, 99% confidence interval, SESOI and power. This demonstrates the mechanism on a controlled model, not broad real-data confirmation. |
| Pantheon SN | fragile signal | Promising signal, but configuration-fragile and not confirmed by the surrogate-null gate. |
| FRED monthly | NOT_CONFIRMED | Fails the surrogate-null and multiverse gates in the confirmatory reading. |
| PBDB marine | REJECT | No transition detected in the densified pilot. |
| LLM scaling | REJECT | No transition detected in the densified pilot. |
| QCC / Brisbane StateProb | separate diagnostic | Specialized workflow separated from canonical ORI-C verdicts. It should not be presented as global canonical proof. |
What the framework currently claims
- A falsifiable, pre-registerable and auditable test architecture.
- Explicit parameters, thresholds, gates and verdict tokens.
- Stronger controls against confusing a smooth trend with a localized transition.
- A robust synthetic mechanistic proof on an endogenous bistable model.
What should no longer be claimed as-is
- No “definitively validated” real-data framework.
- No “complete dual proof” as strong scientific proof.
- No “from cosmos to qubits” statement as a canonical global conclusion.
- No FRED or Pantheon SN presented as strong confirmations.
How this fits the ORI-C site
The site can keep three layers separate: the general ORI-C framework on living coherence, PALM as an observational grammar, and CumulativeSymbolicThreshold as the scientific test machine. This page covers the third layer: the falsifiable repository and its real evidentiary status.